DALLAS, TX -- March 16th, 2026 -- Surf Air Mobility Inc. (NYSE.SRFM): Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Surf Air Mobility Inc. (NYSE:SRFM). SRFM’s FY25 results suggest the company is emerging from restructuring with a more stable operating base and a clearer path to growth. Full-year revenue of $106.6M met the company’s raised outlook, while adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $41.7M on better airline operations, a stronger charter mix, and continued execution under the transformation plan. Net debt also declined 47% y/y to $74M, supported by capital actions and convertible note conversion. In 4Q25, SRFM reported revenue of $26.4M and an adjusted EBITDA loss of just under $8M, both within guidance despite pressure from exiting unprofitable scheduled routes. Overall, the quarter reinforced continued progress in the transformation heading into 2026.
Air Mobility: Air Mobility improved in 4Q25, with On Demand revenue up 36% y/y, while scheduled revenue declined due to the continued exit of unprofitable routes On Demand revenue increased 36% y/y, driven by better sourcing discipline, a mix shift toward longer-haul trips with larger aircraft, and early BrokerOS traction. Improved controllable completion and on-time performance also suggest the airline is becoming a more reliable platform heading into FY26.
Software: SRFM continued to advance SurfOS in 4Q25, with the story moving closer to commercialization. In 2025, the company directed $26M toward SurfOS, fully deployed BrokerOS internally, launched its Palantirpowered scheduling tool, and signed LOI and beta partnership agreements with multiple Part 135 operators. With BrokerOS, OperatorOS, and OwnerOS now introduced, we view software as an increasingly credible second leg to the story, with initial SurfOS revenue expected in 2026.
Electrification: SRFM’s electrification strategy is broadening beyond the legacy Cessna Caravan program and is now better framed around enabling electric aircraft adoption across regional aviation. The new BETA Technologies partnership is the clearest proof point, positioning SRFM as a potential operator, service, and infrastructure partner as electric aircraft enter commercial use. In our view, that shift matters because it moves SRFM toward more partnership-driven, capital-light participation in airline electrification, while the Caravan program maintains its longer-term optionality, most likely through a future JV partnership.
Outlook: For 1Q26, management expects revenue of $24M to $26M and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $15.5M to $13.5M, reflecting higher On Demand charter revenue, improved scheduled load factors, and the continued impact of exiting unprofitable routes, with no SurfOS revenue contribution assumed. For FY26, the company guided revenues of $128M to $138M, representing 20% to 30% growth, and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $50M to $40M, with growth expected to be weighted toward the back half of the year as On Demand accelerates and SurfOS begins contributing revenue.
Valuation: We are using an EV/Revenue framework to inform our SRFM valuation. Currently SRFM is trading at a FY27 EV/Revenue of 1.3x compared to comps at a median of 3.4x. We are using our F26 expected Revenue, and an EV/Revenue range of 3.0x to 4.0x with a midpoint of 3.5x. This arrives at a valuation range of $5.90 to $8.32 with a mid-point of $7.11.
