Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage On Surf Air Mobility Inc. (NYSE: SRFM) 1Q26

Key Takeaways
  • Transformation plan is beginning to show operating leverage. 1Q26 revenue of $25.6M came in at the high end of guidance, while adjusted EBITDA loss of $(12.3)M beat guidance, supported by route rationalization, On Demand margin expansion, and tighter cost controls.
  • On Demand and SurfOS are becoming the core growth/margin drivers. Surf On Demand revenue increased 77% y/y to $10.1M, with revenue per flight up 38% and gross margin up ~340 bps, while BrokerOS and OperatorOS traction suggest SurfOS is moving toward a commercial software platform.
  • FY26 setup improved as guidance de-risked and valuation remains discounted. Management maintained FY26 revenue guidance of $128M–$138M and improved adjusted EBITDA loss guidance by ~40%, while SRFM trades at 1.3x FY27 EV/Revenue versus comps at 2.4x, supporting potential multiple re-rating if execution continues.

DALLAS, TX -- May 13, 2026 -- Surf Air Mobility Inc. (NYSE: SRFM): Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Surf Air Mobility Inc. (NYSE: SRFM). SRFM’s 1Q26 results showed continued execution under the transformation plan, with revenue of $25.6M at the high end of guidance and up 9% y/y, while adjusted EBITDA loss of $12.3M outperformed guidance for a loss of $15.5M to $13.5M. Results were supported by improved On Demand private charter margins, cost controls across airline operations, and faster, more cost-efficient SurfOS development and deployment.

Air Mobility: Air Mobility performance in 1Q26 reflected a more disciplined operating base, with scheduled service revenue of $15.5M down 13% y/y as the company continued exiting unprofitable routes. Operational metrics improved to a 96% controllable completion factor, 72% on-time departures, and 78% on-time arrivals. Surf On Demand was the clear growth driver, with revenue of $10.1M up 77% y/y, marking the segment’s highest revenue quarter since inception. Revenue per flight increased 38%, supported by a mix shift toward longer flights, international departures, and larger-cabin aircraft, while gross margin improved approximately 340 bps y/y. BrokerOS also contributed to productivity gains.

Software: SurfOS is increasingly moving from internal productivity tool to commercial platform. BrokerOS generated revenue in 1Q26 through a take rate on On Demand private charter bookings, while Powered by Surf On Demand had expanded to 29 independent brokers by April, with hundreds of additional applicants in the queue. Management is targeting 100 active brokers by year-end 2026. OperatorOS remains targeted for commercial launch in 2H26, with management citing 17 LOIs and software agreements already signed, a target of 10 additional LOIs, and five operators live on the platform by year-end. The Company also launched or deployed several Palantir-powered tools, which we expect to be significant to operations.

Electrification: In March, the company announced a firm order for 25 BETA ALIA all-electric aircraft, with options for up to 75 additional aircraft, and was designated as BETA’s launch operator for commercial passenger electric service. The partnership also positions SRFM to establish BETA factory authorized service centers, with exclusivity in launch regions, and allowed the Company to eliminate up to $100M of planned capital expenditure tied to its Cessna Caravan powertrain electrification program.

Outlook: For 2Q26, management guided to revenue of $27M to $30M and adjusted EBITDA loss of $10.5M to $8.5M, reflecting continued On Demand growth, the impact of prior-year route exits, higher fuel costs, weather-related cancellations in Hawaii, and ongoing SurfOS investment. For FY26, revenue guidance remains $128M to $138M, representing 20% to 30% growth over FY25, while adjusted EBITDA loss guidance was improved by approximately 40% to $30M to $25M. The Company also raised $30M of capital in April, with proceeds intended to accelerate SurfOS implementation and fund electrification initiatives.

Valuation: We are using an EV/Revenue framework to inform our SRFM valuation. Currently SRFM is trading at a FY27 EV/Revenue of 1.3x compared to comps at an median of 2.4x. We are using our F26 expected Revenue, and an EV/Revenue range of 2.5x to 3.5x with a midpoint of 3.0x. This arrives at a valuation range of $3.53 to $5.17 with a mid-point of $4.35.


About Stonegate

Stonegate Capital Partners is a leading capital markets advisory firm providing investor relations, equity research, and institutional investor outreach services for public companies. Our affiliate, Stonegate Capital Markets (member FINRA) provides a full spectrum of investment banking, equity research and capital raising for public and private companies.

SOURCE: Stonegate, Inc.

Key Takeaways
  • Transformation plan is beginning to show operating leverage. 1Q26 revenue of $25.6M came in at the high end of guidance, while adjusted EBITDA loss of $(12.3)M beat guidance, supported by route rationalization, On Demand margin expansion, and tighter cost controls.
  • On Demand and SurfOS are becoming the core growth/margin drivers. Surf On Demand revenue increased 77% y/y to $10.1M, with revenue per flight up 38% and gross margin up ~340 bps, while BrokerOS and OperatorOS traction suggest SurfOS is moving toward a commercial software platform.
  • FY26 setup improved as guidance de-risked and valuation remains discounted. Management maintained FY26 revenue guidance of $128M–$138M and improved adjusted EBITDA loss guidance by ~40%, while SRFM trades at 1.3x FY27 EV/Revenue versus comps at 2.4x, supporting potential multiple re-rating if execution continues.
Media Gallery
Related Bios
Dave Storms
Director of Research Stonegate Capital Markets
View Full Bio>>
Contacts
Stonegate Capital Partners
info@stonegateinc.com
(214) 987-4121
General