DALLAS, TX -- March 23th, 2026 -- Fold Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD): Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Folding Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD). Fold exited FY25 with solid momentum, delivering revenue of $31.8M (+34% y/y) on transaction volume of $960M (+46% y/y) and ending the year with more than 84K (+20% y/y) verified accounts, including ~13K net adds. While profitability remained pressured by ongoing investment, with operating loss of $(27.7)M and adj. EBITDA of $(17.2)M, the year still reflected continued platform scaling, broader product reach, and improving monetization. In 4Q25, revenue rose 8% y/y to $9.1M, though operating KPIs softened, as transaction volume declined 3% y/y to $215M and verified account growth moderated to ~2K net adds amid weaker bitcoin market conditions, which we view as more market-driven than structural.
Momentum and Execution: In our view, Fold’s biggest accomplishment in 2025 was turning product investment into a broader commercial platform heading into FY26. The limited launch of the Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card adds what could become a key engagement and monetization product, with the potential to increase share of wallet, improve retention, and deepen cross-sell. At the same time, the Bitcoin Gift Card expanded Fold’s acquisition funnel online and in retail, including distribution across roughly 2,000 Kroger locations, while business partnerships like the one with Steak ’n Shake add awareness and onboarding opportunities. We view Fold for Business as beneficial on two fronts, expanding the customer base through employee onboarding via channel partners while also adding a recurring enterprise revenue stream. Overall, these initiatives give Fold a broader commercial base and stronger footing for execution in FY26.
Credit Card Rollout: With the Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card now live, the focus shifts to rollout and conversion. Initial issuance went to team members followed by friends and family. The next cohort is expected to be the select users from the 80K+ waitlist subject to underwriting, fraud controls, approvals, and lender financing. Management also noted the waitlist was built with almost no marketing spend, suggesting low initial CAC and strong organic demand. Overall, the card is expected to increase share of wallet, deepen engagement, strengthen ecosystem stickiness, and make waitlist conversion a key 2026 milestone. We expect Fold to reopen the credit card waitlist as fraud and risk controls become more fully dialed in, providing another lever to support customer acquisition as the rollout broadens.
Treasury & Capital Position: Fold ended FY25 with 1,527 BTC in its investment treasury, valued at $133.7M at year-end, which management views as support for the operating business rather than a standalone treasury strategy. Subsequent to year-end, Fold made a number of transactions, resulting in an investment treasury balance of 827 BTC as of March 17, 2026. We view this as a disciplined use of the balance sheet that preserves liquidity and flexibility.
Valuation: We use two comp analysis to value FLD. Our blended EV/Revenue analysis arrives at a valuation range of $2.23 to $4.59 with a mid-point of $3.41. Our EV/BTC NAV analysis arrives at a valuation range of $3.22 to $4.38 with a mid-point of $3.80.
