DALLAS, TX -- May 15, 2026 -- Fold Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD): Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Folding Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD). Fold’s 1Q26 reflected bitcoin-market-driven pressure on activity, but the quarter did not change the core thesis; it shifted the FY26 focus toward conversion and scaling across products now in market. Revenue declined 21.1% y/y to $5.6M as transaction volume fell 32% y/y to $172M, while verified accounts approached 85K with close to 2K net adds. Net loss was $(29.2)M and adj. EBITDA was $(5.8)M, though GAAP results were affected by bitcoin treasury fair value changes and financing-related items. Operating expenses declined 19% y/y to $13.4M, supported by lower direct costs, lower stock-based compensation, and lower professional fees. Management noted February marked the bottom across most core KPIs, with early improvement as bitcoin recovered. We view 1Q26 as market driven pressure in transaction-linked activity, while Fold’s broader platform strategy moved closer to commercial validation.
Momentum and Execution: In our view, the key 1Q update is that Fold now has multiple acquisition and engagement channels live at the same time. The Credit Card is in early access, the Bitcoin Gift Card is being repositioned as a lower-friction acquisition channel, and Fold for Business extends the platform into employer-funded bitcoin rewards. This shifts the FY26 focus toward account quality, usage frequency, and cross-product monetization rather than bitcoin transaction volume alone. Management also noted Fold’s products currently generate positive contribution margins, making fixed-cost discipline and product scaling the primary drivers of operating leverage.
Credit Card Rollout: With more than 1,000 Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Cards now in circulation, the focus shifts to responsible scaling and conversion from the company’s roughly 80K-person waitlist. Management is phasing the rollout to validate systems, underwriting, servicing, fraud controls, and unit economics before broader distribution. Early cardholder behavior appears encouraging, with users engaging across multiple Fold products and using the card for everyday purchases as well as larger spend categories. The card did not materially contribute to 1Q results, making early cohort behavior, billing-cycle data, spend levels, revolving activity, charge offs, and additional credit facilities the key variables for FY26 revenue acceleration.
Treasury & Capital Position: Fold ended 1Q26 with $11.5M of cash and 826 BTC in its investment treasury, valued at $56.4M at quarter-end, with 430 BTC restricted as collateral under the Two Prime credit facility. The company also held 77 BTC in its rewards treasury, matching its bitcoin denominated customer rewards liability. Net cash used in operating activities was $6.6M, compared with $5.0M in the prior-year period. Importantly, Fold extinguished both outstanding convertible notes during the quarter, simplifying the capital structure and improving financing flexibility. We view the capital actions as supportive of the operating plan, preserving liquidity and bitcoin exposure while giving Fold more flexibility to scale credit, gift card distribution, and business channels through FY26.
Valuation: We use two comp analysis to value FLD. Our blended EV/Revenue analysis arrives at a valuation range of $3.01 to $5.22 with a mid-point of $4.11. Our EV/BTC NAV analysis arrives at a valuation range of $4.80 to $6.10 with a mid-point of $5.45.
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SOURCE: Stonegate, Inc.
