DALLAS, TX -- March 13th, 2026 -- Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMTX): Stonegate Capital Partners updates coverage on Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMTX). Aemetis’ 4Q25 results further support the view that the Company is beginning to transition from a capital-intensive buildout story toward a more monetizable low-carbon fuels platform. Dairy RNG remains the clearest proof point, with 12 operating digesters, approximately 405,000 MMBtu of full-year production, and 4Q output up 61% y/y. More importantly, Biogas contributed $10.3 million of production tax credits in the fourth quarter and generated $12.2 million of segment net income, reinforcing that the RNG business is no longer just a future earnings opportunity but an asset already producing meaningful profitability. That earnings base should continue to build as Aemetis captures value from RNG molecule sales, D3 RINs, LCFS credits, and federal production tax credits, with seven new CARB pathway approvals improving average RNG carbon intensity from the negative-150 default to negative 380.
The next major earnings step-up remains the already financed Keyes MVR project, which we view as the most important near-term EBITDA growth across the portfolio. Management continues to target completion of the MVR project in 2026. The economics remain compelling, with the system expected to reduce natural gas usage, lower plant carbon intensity, and add roughly $32M of annual cash flow, anchoring the Company’s cash flow outlook. Importantly, the benefit is not limited to cost savings, as the project should also enhance LCFS and 45Z monetization, creating a more meaningful uplift to profitability and cash generation. In that context, the MVR project represents the clearest bridge from Aemetis’ current earnings base to a stronger 2026-27 financial profile.
Quarterly Results: At the consolidated level, 4Q25 showed clear operational improvement, with revenue plus production tax credits increasing to $53.7M from $47.0M in the prior year period. Profitability also improved meaningfully across the P&L, as gross profit rose to $7.7M from a $2.0M gross loss, operating loss narrowed to $2.5M from $13.5M, and net loss improved to $5.3M from $16.2M. SG&A declined to $10.2M, while cash ended the quarter at $4.9M. Results also included $10.3M of production tax credit income, highlighting the growing contribution of federal incentive monetization.
Performance remained uneven across segments, with India adding variability to results, as is expected. While the business generated $29.7M of FY25 revenue, 4Q revenue was just $0.6M due to OMC timing, though the outlook improved heading into FY26 with a new roughly $24M OMC allocation coupled with geopolitical tailwinds. Overall, the quarter improved our view of the story, as the core low-carbon businesses are improving in ways that should increasingly matter to earnings and cash flow, with execution remaining critical across RNG expansion, MVR startup, India, and balance sheet management.
Policy Tailwinds to Drive Growth – Aemetis is ideally positioned to benefit from four major U.S. policy tailwinds supporting low-carbon fuels demand: (1) CARB’s long-duration LCFS framework and improving LCFS pricing; (2) Section 45Z production tax credits; (3) California’s adoption of E15 via AB30, which expands the addressable market and should improve plant economics alongside the Keyes MVR project; and (4) ongoing state and federal clean-fuel mandates and incentives. Together with the signed MVR EPC and fully monetized RNG pathways, these factors support the Company’s focus on margin expansion, recurring credit monetization, and disciplined project financing into 2026.
Valuation – We use a DCF Model when valuing AMTX. Our valuation model returns a valuation range of $7.41 to $17.09 with a midpoint of $11.17. Further details can be found on page 5 of this report.
