DALLAS, TX -- March 28th, 2025 -- Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq:AMTX): Stonegate Capital Partners updates coverage on Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq:AMTX), highlighting strong growth across its renewable energy segments. Full year revenues increased 43% to $268.0M, up from $187.0M in FY23. This resulted in a net loss of $87.5M, which was largely impacted by interest expenses. The Company ended the year with $0.898M in cash, with a higher cash balance expected at 1Q25 end following the sale of $16.8M in transferable investment tax credits in February of 2025.
Company Updates:
Aemetis RNG: In 2024, Aemetis RNG more than doubled its production capacity to 550,000 MMBtu, resulting in a 139% increase in revenue. The Company plans to double capacity again in 2025 to 1,000,000 MMBtu, supported by $75.0M in long-term USDA financing. Full CARB Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) pathway certification, expected in 2025 for seven digesters, could increase LCFS credit generation by ~80%, significantly enhancing revenue. With 26 dairies expected to be operational by 2026 and 50 dairies already under contract, Aemetis is positioning itself to become the largest dairy RNG producer in California’s low-carbon fuel market.
California Ethanol: In 2024, ethanol revenues rose 55% to $162.0M. AMTX advanced its sustainability and efficiency goals through three key initiatives. First, the Mechanical Vapor Recompression (MVR) system—expected to be completed in 2025—will reduce energy costs and carbon intensity, boosting margins through more efficient, eco-friendly production. Second, the completed $12.0M solar microgrid installation will lower fossil fuel dependence and operating expenses, supporting the Company’s long-term emissions reduction strategy. Lastly, the anticipated adoption of E15 ethanol in California offers a major growth opportunity, expected to increase demand, improve pricing, and expand market access. With California’s push for lower-carbon fuels, Aemetis is well-positioned to benefit from these regulatory tailwinds.
India Biofuels: India Biofuels revenue rose 20% to $93.0M in 2024, driven by a ~50% increase in production capacity to 80 million gallons per year. Growth is expected to continue, supported by the Indian government’s renewed biodiesel blending commitments, with new fuel tenders issued in March 2025 and deliveries beginning in April. AMTX is preparing for a potential IPO of its India Biofuels segment in late 2025 or early 2026, which could unlock capital for further expansion. Additionally, the Company is exploring biogas production in India, further diversifying its clean energy portfolio.
Regulatory Environment: Aemetis’ success is closely tied to evolving regulatory policies that support renewable fuels. In California, updated LCFS amendments—effective in 2025—mandate a 9% reduction in carbon intensity, which is expected to drive up LCFS credit prices over time. Although recent delays in implementation have temporarily reduced credit values, full approval is anticipated later in 2025. Nationally, the continued rollout of E15 ethanol blends is expected to improve margins for the ethanol segment, especially as adoption in California progresses. Meanwhile, the Company’s domestic growth strategy could be significantly affected by the status of two federal tax credits. 45Q credits incentivizes carbon capture and sequestration, while 45Z credits, a new fuel production credit, are taking effect in 2025. Both credits currently face regulatory and political uncertainty, and potential changes could influence their availability and value, impacting economics across U.S.-based initiatives.
Valuation – We are using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis. We are applying various EV/EBITDA multiples to Aemetis’ projections and apply a discount range of 32.5% to 37.5%. As a result, we arrive at a valuation range of $13.02 to $19.03 with a midpoint of $15.71.
Stonegate Capital Partners is a leading capital markets advisory firm providing investor relations, equity research, and institutional investor outreach services for public companies. Our affiliate, Stonegate Capital Markets (member FINRA) provides a full spectrum of investment banking, equity research and capital raising for public and private companies.
