DALLAS, TX -- November 6, 2026 -- Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX): Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX). Aemetis’ 3Q26 results strengthened the operating case as higher RNG credit values increased earnings from existing assets. The $11.0M first-half 45Z catchup amplified profits, but recurring economics also improved. Most MVR benefits are now expected in 2H27, extending the funding period before Keyes delivers its next earnings step. Financing terms and cash retained after investment should determine how much improvement reaches shareholders.
Dairy RNG can grow earnings through both production and higher credit value. Volume rose 39% y/y and 8% q/q to 158,200 MMBtu. September’s federal model update increased 45Z value from $15.20 to approximately $62/MMBtu before discounts and transaction costs. Quarterly RNG 45Z revenue excluding the catch-up was $9.1M. Management models approximately 15% in total monetization discounts and costs, somewhat above indicated actual experience. On the earnings call, management identified six additional LCFS pathways nearing approval. These could further increase revenue from existing output, improving returns without requiring additional digesters. Two digesters started operating in October versus the prior 3Q target, expanding the network to 14. Winter seasonality should temper extrapolation of summer volumes.
The MVR delay affects funding needs alongside earnings timing. Management now targets construction completion around March 2027, with broader first-half flexibility, versus the prior year-end 2026 operating target. Commissioning and pathway updates shift most expected benefits into 2H27, extending construction funding ahead of cash generation. Management’s approximately $32M annual cash-flow opportunity remains unchanged. Natural-gas savings begin when the system takes over, while incremental credit receipts can lag. December’s planned third corn-oil separator offers a nearer-term margin opportunity, completing a program expected to approximately double production versus 1Q26.
Quarterly Results: Revenue increased 49% y/y to $88.2M versus $71.3M consensus. Excluding the catch-up, we calculate approximately $77.2M, still above expectations. Gross profit reached $29.5M, operating income $20.9M, adj. EBITDA $24.8M, and net income $5.2M. Mechanically subtracting the catchup leaves approximately $13.8M of adj. EBITDA. Lower prior-quarter RNG credit values limit sequential comparison. Ethanol volumes rose 6% y/y and pricing increased 10%, partly offset by higher corn costs. Quarterly 45Z recognition also benefits comparisons because 2025 credits were recorded in 4Q.
India biodiesel sales recovered to $7.3M from $2.5M in 2Q under the $17M OMC allocation, below $13.9M last year. Expected 4Q European export approvals could diversify demand, but do not establish recurring shipments at this point.
Outlook & Liquidity: Credit monetization has advanced further than financial self-sufficiency. September’s $22.4M sale demonstrated cash realization, yet unrestricted cash was $3.4M. Nine-month operating cash flow of $9.5M trailed $35.3M of CapEx and benefited from accrued interest and fees. Debt was $435.4M, including $280.6M due on demand to Third Eye, excluding $123.6M of preferred-unit liabilities. Substantial going-concern doubt persists. December’s $117.3M redemption has a financing alternative through January 2028 at the greater of prime plus 5% or 12%. The alternative extends maturities while preserving the obligation and financing costs. Lender allocation of taxcredit proceeds and refinancing terms remain central to cash retention.
Valuation: We use a DCF Model when valuing AMTX. Our valuation model returns a valuation range of $6.56 to $16.64 with a price target of $10.46.
