DALLAS, TX -- August, 10 2026 -- Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX): Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX). Aemetis’ 2Q26 results made the operating inflection visible, as quarterly 45Z recognition, higher RNG production, and improved ethanol economics drove positive operating income and adj. EBITDA despite India OMC tender timing. Revenue increased 20% y/y and 15% q/q to $62.7M, below $68.6M consensus, while our normalized EPS estimate of negative $0.11 exceeded negative $0.24 consensus. Underlying results were better than the revenue variance: India reflected tender timing, and both California businesses delivered higher volumes, stronger gross profit, and increased environmental-credit contribution.
Dairy RNG remains the clearest driver. Sales volume increased 38% y/y and 34% q/q to 146,900 MMBtu, while segment gross profit rose to $4.0M from $0.9M. Seven approved LCFS pathways averaging negative 380 CI versus the negative 150 default are contributing higher credit value, with six nearing approval and expected to receive customary lookback treatment. Two digesters are expected to be commissioned in 3Q26. Current RNG 45Z economics are $15.20/MMBtu at negative 42 CI; management illustrated potential above $75/MMBtu near negative 375 CI, though federal treatment remains uncertain. We view this as regulatory upside rather than guidance or our base case.
The Keyes earnings bridge advanced. MVR remains targeted for operation by year-end 2026 and, under management’s stated assumptions, is expected to provide approximately $32M of annual value, including $8M from lower natural gas consumption and $24M from incremental LCFS and 45Z value. Given the year-end target, we expect most contribution in 2027. Two of three upgraded corn-oil units are operating, with the third expected later this fall; together, the program should approximately double output versus 1Q and provide an incremental margin and cash-flow benefit.
Quarterly Results: Gross profit improved to $13.5M from a $3.4M loss, operating income reached $5.8M versus a $10.7M loss, adj. EBITDA increased to $9.7M from negative $5.8M, and net loss narrowed to $9.4M from $23.4M. Results included $8.6M of 45Z revenue, split between California Ethanol ($6.5M) and Dairy RNG ($2.1M). Ethanol volumes rose 12%, pricing increased 9%, and delivered corn costs declined to $6.07/bushel from $6.42.
India biodiesel revenue declined to $2.5M without new Q2 OMC purchases, but the late-July allocation of more than 18M liters should generate approximately $17M over three months. The award improves near-term visibility but is not a recurring run rate.
Outlook & Liquidity: The operating outlook improved, but the balance sheet remains the primary thesis constraint. Quarter-end unrestricted cash was $1.0M; Aemetis received approximately $14.5M of net cash proceeds after transaction costs from the $18M tax-credit sale, although substantially all excess tax-credit cash must be remitted to the senior lender. Total debt was $415.9M, including $269.6M of Third Eye obligations due on demand, and the 10-Q retained substantial going-concern doubt. RNG pathway approvals, federal 45Z updates, MVR commissioning, India deliveries, and refinancing progress should determine how quickly operating improvement translates into durable FCF and lower financing costs.
Valuation – We use a probability-adjusted Discounted Cash Flow Model when valuing AMTX. Our valuation model returns a valuation range of $6.08 to $16.06 with a midpoint of $9.94 based on a discount rate range of 12.50% to 17.50%.
