DALLAS, TX -- May 14th, 2026 -- Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMTX): Stonegate Capital Partners updates coverage on Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMTX). Aemetis’ 1Q26 further supports the transition from project buildout toward recurring low-carbon fuel monetization, with quarterly 45Z recognition and improving RNG economics beginning to appear in reported results. Revenue increased 27% y/y to $54.6M, gross profit improved to $2.8M from a $5.1M loss, and adj. EBITDA improved to negative $1.3M from negative $10.7M. The key change was recurring quarterly 45Z recognition tied to current-period production, with $4.0M recognized across Dairy RNG and California Ethanol following the full-year 2025 catch-up recognized in 4Q25.
Dairy RNG remains the clearest proof point, with sales volume up 55% y/y to 110,000 MMBtu. Seven approved CARB pathways at an average CI score of negative 380, versus the prior negative 150 default, should improve LCFS revenue capture as production scales, with six additional pathways nearing approval. Initial deliveries under the $27M dairy biogas pretreatment contract also support management’s plan to double the operating dairy network into 2027. Together, higher RNG volumes, improved pathway economics, D3 RINs, LCFS credits, 45Z, and ITC monetization continue improving visibility into the Company’s cash flow profile.
The next major earnings step-up should still come from the Keyes MVR project, which remains on track for 2026 completion. Major equipment delivery and active construction reduce execution uncertainty around the Company’s largest near-term EBITDA catalyst, with commissioning expected later this year. The system is expected to displace roughly 80% of fossil natural gas use at Keyes and add approximately $32M of annual cash flow through lower energy costs and incremental LCFS/45Z uplift. We continue to view MVR as the clearest bridge toward a stronger 2026–27 earnings profile.
Quarterly Results - 1Q26 showed broader segment contribution and cleaner credit monetization. Revenue rose to $54.6M from $42.9M, gross profit turned positive, operating loss narrowed to $6.3M from $15.6M, and net loss improved to $21.7M from $24.5M. SG&A declined to $9.1M, while cash was essentially flat q/q at $4.8M.
California Ethanol benefited from lower corn costs and 45Z credits, Dairy RNG from higher production and improved LCFS pathway economics, and India Biodiesel rebounded to $10.5M on resumed OMC shipments. India should remain timing-sensitive, but management commentary points to improving domestic renewable fuel demand and continued progress toward a Universal Biofuels IPO. Overall, Keyes MVR completion and RNG scaling remain the most important drivers of the next cash flow step-up.
Policy Tailwinds to Drive Growth - Aemetis remains aligned with several policy and market drivers supporting low-carbon fuels demand, including CARB’s LCFS framework, Section 45Z, additional CARB pathway approvals, and India’s renewed focus on domestic biodiesel and renewable fuels. More importantly, these incentives are increasingly contributing to reported results rather than remaining solely part of the long-term project narrative. Together with Keyes MVR, Dairy RNG expansion, India IPO progress, and refinancing initiatives, these drivers support management’s focus on margin expansion, recurring credit monetization, and disciplined project funding through 2026.
Valuation – We use a probability-adjusted Discounted Cash Flow Model when valuing AMTX. Our valuation model returns a valuation range of $8.34 to $18.24 with a midpoint of $12.17 based on a discount rate range of 12.50% to 17.50%.
About Stonegate
Stonegate Capital Partners is a leading capital markets advisory firm providing investor relations, equity research, and institutional investor outreach services for public companies. Our affiliate, Stonegate Capital Markets (member FINRA) provides a full spectrum of investment banking, equity research and capital raising for public and private companies.
SOURCE: Stonegate, Inc.
